(Kitco News) Fundamentals no longer matter as much to the outlook for precious metals, with rate hike expectations and energy concerns having a bigger impact on all metal prices, S&P Global said. .
“Metal prices are facing macroeconomic headwinds. September was characterized by larger interest rate hikes to fight inflation in major economies as central banks became increasingly concerned by the possibility of a global economic recession in 2023,” said Aude Marjolin, associate commodities analyst at S&P Global. Overview of goods.
Next year’s bleak macroeconomic picture is one that weighs on metals, not fundamentals. And ever-higher inflation leaves no short-term leeway for the Federal Reserve to alter or halt its tightening process.
“The possibility of further interest rate hikes in November is being considered, if the Fed strives to meet its 2% inflation target,” Marjolin wrote in S&P Global’s latest price forecast. “The European Central Bank and the central banks of Norway, Sweden and Switzerland also hiked rates in September, as inflation in the eurozone hit 10%, the highest since the euro’s inception.”
In the outlook for gold, S&P Global introduced a slight update to its consensus price forecast, with an average upgrade of 0.4% per year through 2026. Marjolin mentioned the role of the gold in an investment portfolio in times of economic uncertainty and increasing geopolitical risks.
S&P Global sees gold averaging this year at $1,842 an ounce, next year at $1,800, 2024 at $1,769, 2025 at $1,757 and 2026 at $1,753. “Gold has been the unexpected loser in the current macro environment, with its safe haven status in direct competition with the US dollar,” Marjolin noted.
In its silver outlook, S&P Global lowered prices for the next two years, but raised its longer-term projection. The latest consensus forecast is now down 2.3% on average per year through 2026. $22.34/oz,” Marjolin said.
S&P Global expects silver to average this year at $22.50, next year at $22.20, 2024 at $22.31, 2025 at $22.21 and 2026 at 22. $47. “With most industrial activity under pressure from the weakening economy, demand for silver is likely to remain subdued, as will the price,” Marjolin added.
Palladium and platinum price forecasts have been revised down by around 3% per year through 2026, with S&P Global citing the current macroeconomic environment as weighing on palladium and platinum price expectations. The outlook is for platinum to average $1,282 per ounce and palladium to $1,436 in 2026.
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