A popular crypto strategist says that based on historical price action, Bitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for a bullish October.
The pseudonymous analyst known as Kaleo recount its 535,900 Twitter followers that a much-needed relief rally could be in sight for BTC.
“Tracking price action over the past decade, September was by far the worst performing month for BTC – closing positive only 20% of the time. Silver lining – October was one of the best months for BTC – positive 78% of the time with a median gain of 28%.
According to Kaleo, September has historically always been bearish months for Bitcoin, but it tends to open the door for healthy rallies in October.
“Given Bitcoin’s rapid adoption and strong growth over the past decade, it makes perfect sense that October was the highest median percentage return of any month, given that it tracks the worst performing month for the mean reversion argument if nothing else.”
The crypto strategist also points out that Bitcoin has lost around 75% of its value from the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000, which it reached in November last year.
“There are still a lot of supporters for the price to drop, which honestly isn’t crazy considering BTC’s average decline against ATH over the past few cycles. ATH at bear market lows each of the previous cycles:
2011 – 2012: -94%
2013 – 2015: -86%
2017 – 2019: -84%
2021 – now: -75%.”
Based on BTC’s historical performance, Kaleo warns that a move to lower levels is within the realm of possibility. However, he notes that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is now much higher compared to previous bear markets, suggesting that a drop of more than 80% is unlikely.
“While it’s harder for an asset that’s generated hundreds of billions of dollars to experience the same level of volatility it experienced at lower market caps, a lower wick from here would be everything. except unprecedented.”
The crypto strategist concludes his thread by emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results.
“Might be worth it to step away from the charts for a few days and come back for some solid entries in early October. Hopefully the trend continues and we’ll see some relief soon.
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